Two More House Incumbents Fall, But It’s Not What You Think

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Nathan L. Gonzales June 17, 2016 · 4:00 PM EDT

Republican Reps. Renee Ellmers of North Carolina and Randy Forbes of Virginia lost GOP primaries within the last couple of weeks, but it’s not because we’re having a throw-the-bums-out election.

While Donald Trump rode a wave of anti-Establishment sentiment to the GOP presidential nomination, his supporters haven’t simultaneously thrown out Members of Congress in primaries. Through the end of May, every Republican incumbent seeking re-election won his or her primary.

Redistricting was the root cause of defeat for both Ellmers and Forbes. Court decisions forced Republican Legislators in each state to redraw part of the congressional map before this year’s elections, dividing up Ellmers’ 2nd District and making Forbes’ 4th District close to unwinnable for a Republican.

Ellmers faced criticism from conservative groups who believed she is too cozy with party leadership and betrayed them on the abortion issue, but she was essentially forced to run for re-election in a redrawn district where she represented less than 20 percent of the population. And she ran against fellow Rep. George Holding, who represented over 60 percent of the new 2nd District. 

Holding won the June 7 primary with 53 percent followed by Ellmers (24 percent) and perennial candidate Greg Brannon (23 percent).

Why Won’t Bernie Go Away?

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Nathan L. Gonzales June 17, 2016 · 3:59 PM EDT

In a race full of surprises, I’m surprised that Democrats are surprised that Bernie Sanders isn’t quite ready to exit quietly stage left from the presidential contest.

The Vermont senator took one step closer to bowing out on Thursday night, but stopped short of a concession.

“The major political…

Ratings Change: Utah’s 4th District

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Nathan L. Gonzales June 17, 2016 · 3:58 PM EDT

A new public poll showing GOP Rep. Mia Love trailing Democratic challenger Doug Owens by 6 points doesn’t smell quite right. But the congresswoman could still be in for a competitive race, even though Utah’s 4th District isn’t a typical swing seat. 

The June 2-8 automated poll conducted by…

California Turns the Page to the General Elections

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Nathan L. Gonzales June 17, 2016 · 3:57 PM EDT

Four months away from the Iowa caucuses on the calendar, California seemed to have a negligible chance of playing a part in the presidential nominating contests. But just as it looked like Republicans and Democrats might fight it out all the way to June 7, Donald Trump locked up the GOP nomination…