Trying to Make Sense of the Post-New Hampshire Republican Race

Nathan L. Gonzales February 10, 2016 · 2:20 PM EST

If there were any doubts that Donald Trump was a serious contender in the Republican presidential race after he arguably under-performed in Iowa, New Hampshire’s results should be a wake-up call.

While one victory in the Granite State certainly doesn’t guarantee Trump the nomination, his significant margin (nearly 20 percent) isn’t easily dismissed. It’s becoming clear that he has a fairly high floor of support, although he could also have a lower ceiling than many of the other candidates.

When it comes to Trump, there are two ways to look at the results and the polls. The first way is the Trump way, where the businessman is consistently leading and winning. The second way points out that between 65-70 percent, or more, of Republican voters know Trump and are voting against him or not choosing to support him in the polls; they just happened to be divided among seven other candidates.

The good news for Trump is that the New Hampshire result isn’t likely to narrow the list of candidates all that much and he could continue to benefit from a divided field.

I still don’t believe John Kasich will be the GOP nominee (I agree with a lot of Stu’s column, “It’s Official: Put a Fork in Kasich’s Candidacy”) but his campaign has been remarkably good and has caught a couple breaks along…

Voters Don’t Fit Neatly Into Presidential Primary Lanes

Nathan L. Gonzales February 9, 2016 · 4:59 PM EST

The common narrative of the Republican presidential primary has two groups of candidates jockeying for position in establishment and anti-establishment lanes.

Under these parameters, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz would stand to be the primary, if not sole, beneficiary from Donald Trump’s departure, whether…

Can Rubio Follow Romney’s Path to the Nomination?

Stuart Rothenberg February 9, 2016 · 12:30 PM EST

Is Marco Rubio a conservative who wants to overthrow the GOP establishment or a potential standard-bearer for party pragmatists?  He’s trying to be both, of course.

That strategy has been tried before – by Mitt Romney. And it worked, sort of. The question now, after Rubio’s debate performance on…

What Happened to Jeb Bush?

Stuart Rothenberg February 9, 2016 · 9:08 AM EST

It must be more than a decade ago when I got a glimpse of the man often referred to as “George W. Bush’s smarter, younger brother.”

Charlie Cook and I were scheduled to speak to a group of Florida business leaders during lunch, but before we began our shtick, the state’s sitting governor, Jeb…

Why Was Fiorina Denied Ad Time During the Debate?

Nathan L. Gonzales February 8, 2016 · 9:00 AM EST

Carly Fiorina didn’t make Saturday night’s Republican presidential debate in New Hampshire because she didn’t meet ABC’s polling threshold. But the network appeared to add insult to injury by not allowing her campaign to air television ads during the debate either. At least that’s what her campaign…