President News & Analysis

Comparing the GOP Divides, 1964 and 2016

Stuart Rothenberg May 24, 2016 · 9:00 AM EDT

With the GOP national convention still almost two months away and Donald Trump already wooing skeptical Republicans, it’s too early to know how divided the Republican Party will be in November. But minimizing that divide is critical to Trump’s prospects.

The party’s last serious fracture occurred in 1964, when…

Clinton Begins General Election With Advantage

Nathan L. Gonzales May 19, 2016 · 3:00 PM EDT

Even though the general election presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump hasn’t officially started, it’s impossible to label the race as a toss-up.

The path is challenging for any GOP nominee. Based on how the majority of states are likely to fall, the GOP nominee needs to…

Don’t Assume Paul Ryan Will be Speaker Next Year

Nathan L. Gonzales May 19, 2016 · 9:00 AM EDT

Stu and I have been working together for nearly 15 years and any acute political instincts I’ve developed I owe to him. In many ways, we’ve morphed into the same mind, including our valuations of players in fantasy baseball. But after reading Stu’s column, “Ryan Rides to the Rescue…

Clinton Starts with a Decisive Advantage

Stuart Rothenberg May 13, 2016 · 9:30 AM EDT

The warnings about jumping to conclusions about November are widespread.

I’ve heard that it’s early in the presidential race and that we underestimated Donald Trump last time so we should be careful now. I’ve also heard that Trump’s strength with working-class whites could change the electoral map, giving him…

Donald Trump is the GOP Nominee. Now What?

Nathan L. Gonzales May 5, 2016 · 10:00 AM EDT

Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for president in 2016.  

Looking back for the answer to “How did we get here?” and forward to handicapping the general election, one word stands out: assumptions.

There was an assumption that once voters were reminded of any number of ways…

Ryan Rides to the Rescue — But Not Until 2020

Stuart Rothenberg May 4, 2016 · 3:30 PM EDT

I recently asked a veteran Republican strategist how his party picks up the pieces after what now looks to be a very difficult 2016 election. His answer was quick and decisive: Paul Ryan.

If November’s elections are as messy for the GOP as they now appear, with Republicans failing…

GOP’s Troubles Just Beginning

Stuart Rothenberg April 29, 2016 · 10:28 AM EDT

Both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz have glaring weaknesses as presidential nominees, but that’s only the beginning of the GOP's problems. Just as important, the current mix of top issues is simply terrible for Republicans in general and conservatives in particular.

The country moved noticeably to the right starting…

How Many Might Defect from Trump or Cruz?

Stuart Rothenberg April 22, 2016 · 8:30 AM EDT

There has been plenty of talk from the two leading Republican presidential contenders about how they will attract voters who didn’t embrace recent GOP nominees.

For Ted Cruz, his pool of new voters supposedly includes conservatives who didn’t bother to vote because they saw few differences between the parties.…

Democrats Are Headed off Their Own Cliff

Stuart Rothenberg April 15, 2016 · 8:45 AM EDT

Political observers – yes, including myself – have argued for years that the Republican Party has moved too far right, allowing its most ideological elements to limit its legislative options, prevent it from addressing national problems, and damage its appeal to key swing and emerging voter groups.

But instead…

The Beginning of the End for Donald Trump

Stuart Rothenberg April 7, 2016 · 9:10 AM EDT

For months, Donald Trump has led in polls, eventually piling up enough delegates to become a serious threat to win the Republican nomination in Cleveland in July. But now it appears that the wealthy businessman and reality television star’s candidacy is in jeopardy, the result of months of crude…