President News & Analysis

Why Was Fiorina Denied Ad Time During the Debate?

Nathan L. Gonzales February 8, 2016 · 9:00 AM EST

Carly Fiorina didn’t make Saturday night’s Republican presidential debate in New Hampshire because she didn’t meet ABC’s polling threshold. But the network appeared to add insult to injury by not allowing her campaign to air television ads during the debate either. At least that’s what her campaign wanted you…

Why Haven’t We Updated Our Presidential Ratings?

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Nathan L. Gonzales February 5, 2016 · 1:59 PM EST

The presidential race has moved from hypothetical to reality as voters begin to caucus and cast their ballots in the early states. But while the primaries are starting to take shape, the outlook on the general election is still far from clear.

I got a call a couple weeks…

Revenge of the Old Fogies

Stuart Rothenberg February 4, 2016 · 2:08 PM EST

While the decision makers at news organizations from the Public Broadcasting System to CNN and the three major networks scramble to appeal to younger viewers, often by skewing younger with their hosts and commentators, Republican and Democratic voters in Iowa and nationally have embraced a remarkably “mature” handful of…

Handicapping the GOP Race Past Iowa

Stuart Rothenberg February 1, 2016 · 9:30 AM EST

Have we entered a new period in American politics, when establishment candidates on the GOP side don’t win their party’s nomination? That is the question I posed in a June 4, 2015 column. It is still a relevant question.

While I answered that it is a mistake to assume…

It’s Official: Put a Fork in Kasich’s Candidacy

Stuart Rothenberg January 31, 2016 · 8:30 AM EST

Feel free to believe that there is a glimmer of hope for Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s bid for the Republican presidential nomination. If that gives you comfort or plays to your own preferences, be my guest. I certainly wouldn’t want to make you uncomfortable.

But even if you believe…

Hillary and Jeb: Destined to Play the Long Game?

Stuart Rothenberg January 28, 2016 · 2:57 PM EST

In a previous election cycle, or maybe a previous decade, Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush might, at this point, be coasting to their parties’ nominations. This cycle, however, both resemble tragic heroes — politicians who have worked hard to prepare themselves for the presidency yet face possible rejection by voters.

Goldwater vs. McGovern in 2016?

Stuart Rothenberg January 20, 2016 · 4:31 PM EST

The strangest election in our lifetime continues to get stranger.

Very rarely, one party decides to make a suicidal statement about its views and values. It happened in 1964 and again in 1972, for example. But this time, both parties are at least flirting with the idea of nominating…

Can Rubio Win Even If He Loses?

Stuart Rothenberg January 13, 2016 · 10:25 AM EST

Can a candidate win the Republican presidential nomination without winning one of the first three contests – Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina? We may just find out this year.

History, of course, has already provided something of an answer. Democrat Bill Clinton didn’t win a contest in 1992…

Obama’s Empty Campaign Threat on Gun Control

Nathan L. Gonzales January 12, 2016 · 1:56 PM EST

In the heat of his push for more gun control, President Barack Obama threatened to withhold support from anyone, including Democrats, who didn’t support “common-sense” changes. But based on the political realities of this cycle, his comments aren’t likely to dramatically impact Senate races.

“Even as I continue to…

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: North Carolina

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Nathan L. Gonzales January 8, 2016 · 3:28 PM EST

A Democratic presidential nominee has won North Carolina just once in the last 40 years, but the Tar Heel State is now firmly planted among the broader group of swing states. 

The results of the 2008 elections ignited the narrative that North Carolina is a purple-colored swing state. That…