President News & Analysis

Is John Kasich in the Top Tier in 2016?

Stuart Rothenberg May 4, 2015 · 10:49 AM EDT

“Perpetually in motion, Kasich is a whirlwind of restless energy and is sometimes criticized for being cocky,” reads the 1996 Politics in America profile of the then-Ohio congressman.

The 1992 edition of The Almanac of American Politics described John R. Kasich as “peppery and brash, spewing forth ideas, a…

Hillary Rodham Romney? Keep an Eye on O’Malley

Stuart Rothenberg April 30, 2015 · 2:27 PM EDT

For all her recent efforts to prove her progressive credentials to Democratic primary voters and caucus participants, former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has not made those on her party’s left entirely comfortable with her. And she never will.

Because of that, a credible alternative would have the…

‘Big Money’ and the 2016 Elections

Stuart Rothenberg April 24, 2015 · 9:54 AM EDT

Reporters love to write about money in politics, so I shouldn’t have been at all surprised by an April 20 Washington Post article suggesting campaign finance is becoming an issue in the presidential contest.

But a front-page story above the fold that relied on a couple of anecdotes…

Cruz’s Struggle: This Man Loves to Argue

Stuart Rothenberg April 22, 2015 · 9:44 AM EDT

The first time I met Ted Cruz, he argued with me. The second time I met Ted Cruz, he argued with me. It wasn’t personal, of course. Ted Cruz simply loves to argue.

Those two incidents told me a lot about Cruz. The first time was at an event…

Context for Facebook Chatter About Presidential Candidates

Nathan L. Gonzales April 21, 2015 · 9:48 AM EDT

Millions of people have talked about the presidential contenders on Facebook as they officially launch campaigns. But despite some gaudy numbers, context and limits of the data cast doubt on the impact Facebook conversations will have on the race.

In the 24 hours surrounding Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s Monday…

The What Ifs of the 2016 GOP Presidential Race

Stuart Rothenberg April 20, 2015 · 9:28 AM EDT

If Jeb Bush doesn’t win any of the first four GOP contests — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — does that eliminate him from the Republican race? Or does he have the staying power to survive those losses?

If Texas Sen. Ted Cruz finishes first in the…

The Young and the Restless of 2016

Stuart Rothenberg April 16, 2015 · 12:36 PM EDT

Once upon a time, presidential candidates were expected to have more than passing experience in government, as well as the maturity and wisdom that sometimes come with age. But that has changed, apparently.

Barack Obama was in the United States Senate for only two years before he began his…

Jeb Bush Can’t Be Nominated. Or Can He?

Stuart Rothenberg April 2, 2015 · 11:20 AM EDT

There are plenty of reasons to believe Jeb Bush, the former two-term governor of Florida, son of a former president and brother of another former president, cannot win the 2016 Republican nomination.

The problem for those of us who report on and analyze elections dispassionately is there are also…

It’s Early: Why Pundits Shouldn’t Overreact

Stuart Rothenberg March 26, 2015 · 3:43 PM EDT

The reviews are in after the first game of spring training: Hillary Rodham Clinton struck out. Or at best, she hit a slow roller to second base and was thrown out by a mile.

She’s toast. It’s over for her. She has handled the email controversy like an amateur.…

The Fearsome Foursome: Bush, Paul, Walker, Rubio

Stuart Rothenberg March 18, 2015 · 9:48 AM EDT

A veritable bevy of Republican presidential hopefuls have already hired staff, wooed deep-pocketed contributors and made speeches in Iowa and New Hampshire, proving what we already know: The 2016 nomination preseason is well underway.

Fundraising, organization, the size of the field and the calendar all will play a significant…