Report Shorts (November 20, 2015) Arizona 1, Arkansas, Kentucky Senate, New York 22

November 20, 2015 · 2:28 PM EST

Arizona’s 1st District. Democratic state Sen. Barbara McGuire decided not to run, but party insiders weren’t pushing her anyway. Former 2nd District Rep. Ron Barber endorsed former GOP state Sen. Tom O’Halleran in yet another sign of who Democrats prefer to be their nominee to try to keep Ann…

Paris Attacks Will Keep Obama and Democrats Playing Defense

Stuart Rothenberg November 20, 2015 · 10:50 AM EST

I say it repeatedly: Events matter. And for President Barack Obama, the terror attacks in Paris present a no-win political situation, at least until other, compelling news changes the subject.

That is not to say the president, the Democratic Party or the likely Democratic 2016 nominee, Hillary…

Don’t Get Too Caught Up in the Trump and Carson ‘Panic’

Stuart Rothenberg November 18, 2015 · 3:02 PM EST

The panic is palpable from the media and too many GOP “insiders.”

The Republican Party is going to nominate Donald Trump or Ben Carson for president, guaranteeing Barry Goldwater-style losses in the 2016 elections and threatening the Republic. Or, as The Washington Post put it on Page 1 of its…

House Retirement Rush Still Short of Average

Nathan L. Gonzales November 17, 2015 · 9:27 AM EST

In spite of the recent rush of retirement announcements, this Congress is still below the historical average of exits each cycle, which means more House retirements are likely to come.

Wyoming Republican Cynthia Lummis, California Democrat Sam Farr and Texas Democrat Rubén Hinojosa capped off the…

Outsider Bevin Hires Insider Chief of Staff

Nathan L. Gonzales November 14, 2015 · 9:35 AM EST

Maybe Republican Matt Bevin isn’t going to burn down Frankfort after all.

The Kentucky Republican rocked the GOP establishment by challenging Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in last year’s primary and irked some party strategists this year by running his gubernatorial campaign strictly on…

EMILY’s List Support Isn’t Early Enough for Senate Hopeful

Nathan L. Gonzales November 13, 2015 · 8:58 AM EST

Pam Keith is a pro-choice Democratic woman running in one of the most competitive Senate races in the country, but the first-time candidate is having trouble getting EMILY’s List interested in her candidacy in Florida.

EMILY’s List was founded 30 years ago to elect pro-choice Democratic women to…

Hillary Clinton and the Two-Term Jinx

Stuart Rothenberg November 12, 2015 · 9:55 AM EST

I hear it all the time: Voters want change after one party has held the White House for eight years, and that’s why only once over the past six decades has a party held the presidency for three consecutive terms. Tough luck, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

The observation has merit, but it isn’t nearly as…

Is Vitter on the Verge of Losing Everything?

Nathan L. Gonzales November 11, 2015 · 10:23 AM EST

Louisiana isn’t anywhere close to belonging on a list of swing states, yet Republican David Vitter is at risk of losing not only his gubernatorial race this month, but also his Senate seat next year.

The Pelican State’s senior senator has struggled to unify the Republican vote after finishing…

Why Trump Would Get Out of the Race

Nathan L. Gonzales November 8, 2015 · 9:07 AM EST

For Donald Trump and his brand, “winning” is of utmost importance. While his relentless talk about American exceptionalism is appealing to GOP primary voters, Trump’s personal success in life and his front-runner status in the Republican contest are other elements of the billionaire businessman’s…

2016 Senate Overview: Playing Field Comes Into Focus, But Climate is Unclear

Nathan L. Gonzales November 6, 2015 · 3:30 PM EST

A year out from the 2016 elections, control of the Senate is up for grabs.

The playing field is starting to solidify around a batch of seven states, including Illinois, Wisconsin, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Ohio, which are likely to decide the majority in the next congress.…