Wisconsin Senate: Argument over Assumptions

Nathan L. Gonzales February 5, 2016 · 2:00 PM EST

Marquette University Law School recently released a poll which showed GOP Sen. Ron Johnson losing to former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold by 13 points in Wisconsin. Johnson’s allies called the poll “bogus” and claim that the race is tied. So who’s right?

The fight over the narrative in Wisconsin…

Why Haven’t We Updated Our Presidential Ratings?

Nathan L. Gonzales February 5, 2016 · 1:59 PM EST

The presidential race has moved from hypothetical to reality as voters begin to caucus and cast their ballots in the early states. But while the primaries are starting to take shape, the outlook on the general election is still far from clear.

I got a call a couple weeks ago from a reader in…

Indiana Governor: How Vulnerable is Mike Pence?

Nathan L. Gonzales February 5, 2016 · 1:58 PM EST

Republican Mike Pence’s shift from the U.S. House of Representatives to governor was supposed to make it easier for him to run for President. But he and the Republicans in the Indiana Legislature created a national firestorm last year over the Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA). And now there…

Wisconsin 8: Ribble Retirement Creates Vulnerable GOP Open Seat

Nathan L. Gonzales February 5, 2016 · 1:57 PM EST

Three-term Rep. Reid Ribble of Wisconsin announced his retirement, leaving Republicans with yet another competitive open seat to defend.

The roofing contractor talked about how he achieved his main legislative goals and expressed his desire to spend more time with his family and return to the…

Tennessee 8: Fincher’s Decision Brings Congress to Historical Average Number of Retirements

Nathan L. Gonzales February 5, 2016 · 1:56 PM EST

Not long after Wisconsin Rep. Reid Ribble announced his retirement, Tennessee Rep. Stephen Fincher followed suit. Although it may seem like an exodus, Fincher’s decision brings this Congress to recent historical average for Members calling it quits.

Unlike Ribble’s seat, Fincher’s 8th District in…

Report Shorts (February 5, 2016) California, Kentucky, Maryland, North Carolina, Tennessee

February 5, 2016 · 1:55 PM EST

California’s 48th District. Just two years removed from Dave Brat’s primary upset of Majority Leader Eric Cantor in Virginia, GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher of Orange County isn’t taking his primary challenger seriously. But what may look like movement against the congressman is more likely preparation…

Revenge of the Old Fogies

Stuart Rothenberg February 4, 2016 · 2:08 PM EST

While the decision makers at news organizations from the Public Broadcasting System to CNN and the three major networks scramble to appeal to younger viewers, often by skewing younger with their hosts and commentators, Republican and Democratic voters in Iowa and nationally have embraced a…

Handicapping the GOP Race Past Iowa

Stuart Rothenberg February 1, 2016 · 9:30 AM EST

Have we entered a new period in American politics, when establishment candidates on the GOP side don’t win their party’s nomination? That is the question I posed in a June 4, 2015 column. It is still a relevant question.

While I answered that it is a mistake to assume that the establishment…