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Report Shorts (March 22, 2013)

March 22, 2013 · 2:28 PM EDT

Arizona Governor. Former U.S. Surgeon General/2012 Senate nominee Richard Carmona (D) announced that he wouldn’t run for governor next year. Former state board of regents chairman/former congressional candidate Fred DuVal and state House Minority Leader Chad Campbell are still potential…

The GOP: A Party Increasingly at Odds With Itself

by Stuart Rothenberg March 22, 2013 · 10:41 AM EDT

“I am not a member of any organized party — I am a Democrat,” humorist Will Rogers said many years ago. But if Rogers were alive today, he’d undoubtedly see his party as a model of organization and unity when compared to the GOP.

The Republican Party continues to fracture more seriously than I…

Arizona: Carmona Declines to Run, Keeps Future Options Open

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 21, 2013 · 3:45 PM EDT

Timing is everything in politics, and for Richard Carmona, 2014 isn’t the right time.

The Arizona Democrat narrowly lost a bid for the U.S. Senate in a very competitive race last fall and was being encouraged by Democrats in Washington, D.C. and the Grand Canyon State to run for governor in…

History May Tell Us Little About GOP’s 2014 Senate Prospects

by Stuart Rothenberg March 21, 2013 · 9:58 AM EDT

A recent National Journal item caught my attention. Entitled “Expanding the Map,” it began: “When Republicans gloat about the seven Democratic-held, red-state Senate seats up in 2014, Democrats can note that only six of their incumbents have lost since the 1990s.”

The statement is true … but…

South Carolina 1: Can Sanford Survive Round Two?

by Jessica Taylor March 20, 2013 · 11:38 AM EDT

The Mark Sanford redemption tour goes on-- and his unlikely political comeback may have even gotten slightly easier after Tuesday’s GOP primary.

The biggest surprise wasn’t that the former governor topped the 16 candidate field, as was widely expected. Instead, in what ended up being a much…

Is the House in Play? A District-by-District Assessment

by Stuart Rothenberg March 20, 2013 · 10:46 AM EDT

Three weeks ago, I discussed whether the House is likely to flip control next year by looking at historical trends and “big picture” questions. Those trends show that the Democrats’ task is a challenging one.

But as the past two cycles have shown, rules are made to be broken. So now, it’s time…

After 2012 Disappointment, Aguilar Readies Re-Run

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 19, 2013 · 9:30 AM EDT

Pete Aguilar was supposed to be a Member of Congress by now, but a serious miscalculation delayed his arrival in Washington.

Aguilar is the 33 year-old mayor of Redlands, a city of almost 70,000 people in southern California’s Inland Empire, located east of Los Angeles. Viewed as a rising star…

GOP Doubles Down on Ryan to Change the Narrative

by Stuart Rothenberg March 15, 2013 · 9:47 AM EDT

In what can only be regarded as an interesting gamble, Wisconsin Rep. Paul D. Ryan and House Republicans this week are proposing an economic agenda oddly similar to the one they have been offering for the past two years.

Among other things, the Ryan budget plan, which intends to balance the…

Recruitment Programs Predict Success…Except When They Don’t

by Jessica Taylor March 14, 2013 · 3:15 PM EDT

In a Wednesday briefing with allied groups and reporters, DCCC Chairman Steve Israel emphasized that his party’s struggle to win the 17 seats begins in 2013, as he outlined how Democrats will secure early commitments from top recruits

It’s a mesage his GOP counterpart, new NRCC Chairman Greg…

Why I Rate Michigan’s Senate Seat As ‘Safe’ for Democrats

by Stuart Rothenberg March 14, 2013 · 9:34 AM EDT

Moments after the Rothenberg Political Report reiterated its “Safe” rating of the now open Michigan Senate race, I started hearing complaints. Some of the questions raised were reasonable — so reasonable that I thought I’d use this space to explain why my colleagues and I decided not to move the…