Senate News & Analysis

Minnesota Senate: Still Very Unlikely, But Not Impossible

by Stuart Rothenberg July 14, 2014 · 9:30 AM EDT

We are moving the Minnesota Senate race from Safe Democrat to Democrat Favored, but readers should not make too much of the changed rating.

The change reflects the broad national environment and Minnesota’s generally competitive nature. A national anti-President Barack Obama wave certainly could threaten incumbent Democratic Sen.…

Could Upbeat Economic News Help Obama, Democrats?

by Stuart Rothenberg July 10, 2014 · 9:43 AM EDT

Last week’s news that the U.S. economy gained 288,000 jobs in June seems to confirm the upbeat economic assessments coming from many of the nation’s economists and Wall Street analysts.

The question is whether the data and increased optimism one might hear on CNBC will have an effect…

Senate Report Shorts (July 8, 2014)

July 8, 2014 · 3:55 PM EDT

Mississippi Senate. Sen. Thad Cochran overcame long-odds by finishing a close second in the initial primary and then defeating state Sen. Chris McDaniel in the GOP runoff, 50.9 percent to 49.1 percent. Cochran and his allies successfully changed the size and shape of the runoff electorate, including outreach to…

Why Democrats and Republicans Can’t Be Friends

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 8, 2014 · 11:44 AM EDT

Roll Call’s fearless Editor-in-Chief Christina Bellantoni recently recapped the 53rd Annual Roll Call Congressional Baseball Game and described some of the bipartisan friendships that started to form on the field.

At the end of the post, she pointed to a common reason given to explain the increased…

Senate GOP Bets on Jeff Larson to Help Ride to Majority in 2014

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 3, 2014 · 1:19 PM EDT

One of the times Jeff Larson offered to help the Republican Party, he ended up with a $130,000 credit card bill for Sarah Palin’s wardrobe.

This year, Larson will be writing the checks for the Republican effort to retake the majority in the Senate.

Larson, who has…

Senate Long Shots Find Success Down the Ballot

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 27, 2014 · 9:00 AM EDT

Giving up a run for office in the middle of a cycle may seem like admitting defeat, but for at least a couple of candidates this year, switching races may end up being the best political decision of their lives.

Republican Ken Buck was a Senate loser. The…

Report Shorts (June 20, 2014) SC Senate, Maine 2, Mississippi Senate, Virginia 7

June 20, 2014 · 3:58 PM EDT

South Carolina Senate. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham won the June 10 primary with 56 percent, avoiding a potentially treacherous runoff two weeks later. None of the six challengers posed a serious threat to the senator in the initial race (the second place finisher received 16 percent), but a one-on-one…

In Campaign Ads, ‘Week One’ Is Still Months Away

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 19, 2014 · 3:53 PM EDT

It can feel like the 2014 congressional races have been going on forever, so when a campaign strategist talks about “Week One,” it can be confusing that Week One is still actually four months away.

Obtaining and understanding television ad buys is becoming an increasingly important part of…

Mark Pryor: Still This Cycle’s Most Vulnerable Senator

by Stuart Rothenberg June 17, 2014 · 9:57 AM EDT

More than a year ago, I called Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., this cycle’s most vulnerable senator. That hasn’t changed.

The longer I do this, the more transparent I try to be about my thinking about each race. So, this column sets out my view of the Arkansas…

Michelle Obama for Senate in 2016: Is It Even a Rumor?

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 16, 2014 · 9:00 AM EDT

The Michelle Obama for Senate in 2016 stories are classic examples of an out-of-control media narrative that is based on little hard evidence.

But it may also end up being a lesson on why it’s best not to dismiss rampant speculation.

The rumor that the first lady…