Senate News & Analysis

Senate Outlook: Lots of Moving Pieces But Fundamentally Unchanged

by Stuart Rothenberg October 17, 2014 · 3:30 PM EDT

The arithmetic for Senate control in the midterms is more complicated and confused than ever, but it is also still very dangerous for Democrats.

Who would have thought that a little more than two weeks before the election Republican strategists would be trying to spending time and money…

Why Republicans Must Win the Senate in 2014

by Stuart Rothenberg October 15, 2014 · 11:09 AM EDT

If next month produces a big Republican year, with the GOP gaining control of the Senate and expanding its majority in the House, it will say little or nothing about 2016, when a presidential electorate and a very different Senate class combine to create the makings of…

Ratings Change: Arkansas Senate from Toss-up/Tilt Republican to Lean Republican

by Stuart Rothenberg October 13, 2014 · 8:33 AM EDT

Arkansas Senate polls released by Democrats and one media outlet suggest that incumbent Senator Mark Pryor leads GOP challenger Rep. Tom Cotton by a couple of percentage points. But most surveys – both public and unreleased – suggest Cotton holds a modest but stable mid-single digit lead in the…

Ratings Change: Alaska Senate from Pure Toss-up to Toss-up/Tilt Republican

by Stuart Rothenberg October 13, 2014 · 8:32 AM EDT

The Alaska Senate race remains quite close, with incumbent Democrat Mark Begich continuing to run a quality campaign. But the contest has started to better reflect the state’s partisan bent and its attitudes about the president, and Sullivan has moved to a small but significant advantage in the most…

Ratings Change: South Dakota Senate from Republican Favored to Lean Republican

by Stuart Rothenberg October 13, 2014 · 8:31 AM EDT

Republican Mike Rounds continues to underperform in what has become a whacky three-way fight (four-way, if you count the Libertarian on the ballot). While the state’s Republican bent could well bail him out in November, and the NRSC has allocated money for the race, we can no longer rule…

Michigan Senate Seat Moves Away from Republicans

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 9, 2014 · 3:00 PM EDT

While the campaign of Michigan GOP Senate nominee Terri Lynn Land crows about a new Wenzel Research poll showing her tailing Democratic nominee Gary Peters by less than three percentage points, it’s increasingly difficult to see this contest as highly competitive.

A year and a half ago, we…

What If I’m Wrong About GOP Flipping at Least 7 Seats?

by Stuart Rothenberg October 8, 2014 · 11:26 AM EDT

A few weeks ago I wrote Senate Republicans would gain at least seven seats, even though the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call race ratings showed a likely Republican gain of five to eight seats.

That expectation was based on national survey results that showed the president extremely is…

Three Election Trends That Could End in 2014

by Stuart Rothenberg October 7, 2014 · 10:20 AM EDT

I’m not certain how long a trend has to exist before it earns the status of an immutable political “law,” but three longtime truths are threatened this election cycle. Will all of them fall in November?

Trend #1: One party holds the Pennsylvania governorship for eight years and…

Fight for the Senate: Trajectory Unchanged

by Stuart Rothenberg October 3, 2014 · 2:30 PM EDT

There is always some uncertainty as an election approaches, and that’s especially the case when dueling polls show very different snapshots of a race.

In Arkansas, for example, two September polls conducted by Hickman Analytics, Inc. for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s Independent Expenditure campaign showed incumbent Democratic…

Family Ties May Not Be Enough to Save Vulnerable Senators

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 2, 2014 · 3:20 PM EDT

It seems like everyone wrote the story: Family political dynasties were supposed to save Mark Begich, Mark Pryor and Mary L. Landrieu, the trio of vulnerable Democratic senators running for re-election in Republican-leaning states.

But as the sports adage says, “That’s why they play the games.”

The…