Senate News & Analysis

Republicans (Still) Poised to Pick Up 6 to 8 Senate Seats

by Stuart Rothenberg November 4, 2014 · 12:00 PM EST

Almost two months ago, on September 8th, I wrote that while the Rothenberg Political Report ratings projected Republican Senate gains in the five to eight seat range, I was “expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.”

“But I…

Election Eve Update: GOP Prospects Continue to Improve in the Senate

November 3, 2014 · 12:27 PM EST

The playing field of competitive Senate races hasn’t changed, but Republican chances to win those seats has improved in the last couple of days.

Since our latest ratings changes on Wednesday, GOP prospects have improved in Colorado and Iowa, making the path to a net gain of at…

Ratings Change in Kentucky Senate

by Stuart Rothenberg November 1, 2014 · 2:50 PM EDT

One of the most watched Senate races of 2014 is over. Take it off your list of states that could fall either way on Tuesday.

Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell has opened up a comfortable lead over Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, secretary of state of the Bluegrass State,…

Obama’s Midterm Loss Record Could Make History

by Stuart Rothenberg November 1, 2014 · 10:52 AM EDT

President Barack Obama is about to do what no president has done in the past 50 years: Have two horrible, terrible, awful midterm elections in a row.

In fact, Obama is likely to have the worst midterm numbers of any two-term president going back to Democrat Harry S.…

Senate Outlook: Advantage to Republicans

by Stuart Rothenberg October 29, 2014 · 4:00 PM EDT

Five Senate seats look increasingly like they will be keys to what kind of election the two parties will have this year.

The GOP looks poised to take over six Democratic seats: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. If they do that and hold all…

What Counts As a GOP Wave in 2014?

by Stuart Rothenberg October 28, 2014 · 10:56 AM EDT

Most neutral observers expect Republicans to take the Senate and make at least small gains in the House, but talk about a possible GOP political wave has all but disappeared.

However, ten days to go until Election Day, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a “wave” election…

Will Obama Leave the Democratic Party Better Than He Found It?

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 27, 2014 · 9:00 AM EDT

Barack Obama was elected on a swell of energy and enthusiasm, but he might leave the Democratic Party worse off than when he took office.

The disconnect between the Obama political operation and Democratic strategists focused on Congress is nothing new. Congressional Democrats have always been a bit…

Ratings Change: New Hampshire Senate

by Stuart Rothenberg October 24, 2014 · 3:05 PM EDT

Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen continues to hold a narrow lead over GOP challenger Scott Brown. But Brown has exceeded our expectations, and he has cut Shaheen’s margin to the low single digits – even though the Republican’s unfavorable rating has been higher than his favorable rating.

Brown –…

South Dakota Senate Race Returning to Form

by Stuart Rothenberg October 22, 2014 · 3:30 PM EDT

Republican attacks on Democrat Rick Weiland and Independent Larry Pressler appear to have worked, making it more likely that the GOP will pick up the seat of retiring Democratic Senator Tim Johnson, as long expected.

Republican Mike Rounds, a former two-term GOP governor, found himself in shockingly uncomfortable…

Not His Father’s Arkansas

by Stuart Rothenberg October 20, 2014 · 10:27 AM EDT

I have been thinking for months about how politics has changed over the past decade, but those changes struck home in a very obvious way while I was reading a recent Washington Post article written by the very able Philip Rucker.

“Senator’s parents hit trail to preserve Ark.…