Senate News & Analysis

The Long Lost Tale of Phil Maloof

Stuart Rothenberg May 22, 2014 · 9:38 AM EDT

Most readers know that Nathan Gonzales and I, along with our friends from Roll Call, interview at least 150 candidates for Congress every election cycle. I have been doing it for many years.

Not every hopeful passes through our offices, of course, and many candidates have won elections…

Ben Sasse, Mystery Man

Stuart Rothenberg May 19, 2014 · 9:02 AM EDT

I am not at all certain who or what Ben Sasse is. I interviewed him in February, and heard him speak to a large, sympathetic group not long after that. And, of course, I’ve seen him interviewed by others. But I still don’t have a handle on what kind…

The New World of Election Coverage and Analysis: A Case Study

Stuart Rothenberg May 15, 2014 · 10:35 AM EDT

My new statistical model of the open Wisconsin Senate seat suggests that Democrats now have only a 54.496 percent chance of holding the seat. That’s a dramatic change from just three weeks ago, when my model showed them with a 55.501 percent chance.

The change results from three…

Michigan: Midwest Melee

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Nathan L. Gonzales May 9, 2014 · 4:00 PM EDT

Michigan has a little bit of everything this cycle- - a competitive gubernatorial race, an open seat race for the U.S. Senate, Republican congressional primaries between insiders and outsiders, crowded Democratic primaries in safe seats and a couple of Republican incumbents who are vulnerable in the general election.

Report Shorts (May 9, 2014) Georgia Governor, Hawaii Governor, North Carolina Senate, and more

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Nathan L. Gonzales May 9, 2014 · 3:58 PM EDT

Florida’s 19th District. Businessman Curt Clawson won the special GOP primary and is the prohibitive favorite in the June special general election. The seat was open after GOP Rep. Trey Radel’s resignation.

Georgia Governor. Gov. Nathan Deal’s mishandling of the state’s winter storm response threw a bit of…

Why This Year’s Primaries Won’t End GOP Civil War

Nathan L. Gonzales May 9, 2014 · 9:49 AM EDT

The Republican establishment is fighting back, but winning a few primaries this year won’t do much to end the insurgency from party purists. It only takes one general election loss by an establishment candidate to reignite the fire.

Observers see what they want to see in the results,…

Now that GOP Primary is Over, North Carolina Senate Moves to Pure Toss-Up

Nathan L. Gonzales May 7, 2014 · 10:45 AM EDT

State House Speaker Thom Tillis won the GOP nomination outright on Tuesday, setting up a general election match-up against Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in one of the top Senate races in the country. Even though Hagan’s polling numbers have been mediocre at best, we gave her a slight edge…

And the Winner of the GOP’s Civil War Primary Is …

Stuart Rothenberg May 7, 2014 · 10:19 AM EDT

Who is winning the primary campaign war within the GOP between pragmatic conservatives and the anti-establishment wing of the party?

It’s a simple question, but it isn’t as easy to answer as you might think. Part of the problem is deciding which candidates and races are part of…

How to Ruin Your Interview With Stu Rothenberg

Nathan L. Gonzales May 2, 2014 · 10:38 AM EDT

After interviewing more than 1,000 candidates for the House and Senate with my colleague, Stu Rothenberg, I’ve got a pretty good idea of what makes him tick and what just plain ticks him off.

Over the course of the past 25 years, Stu has garnered somewhat of a…

Warning: Senate Races Aren’t as Close as They Appear

Stuart Rothenberg April 30, 2014 · 2:14 PM EDT

I’ve noticed with some alarm how many people fail to make reasonable distinctions among races that admittedly have some factors in common.

So let me make an important distinction: While Democratic Senate candidates Alison Lundergan Grimes, 35, and Michelle Nunn, 47, have difficult races ahead of them in…