Senate News & Analysis

Arkansas Senate: Shooting Down Strawmen

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Nathan L. Gonzales April 25, 2014 · 2:58 PM EDT

Reports of Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor’s political death are greatly exaggerated, argue some Democratic operatives and more than a few journalists.

The only problem with that view is that Pryor’s obituary has not yet been written by any serious observer or handicapper. And while arguing over whether Pryor,…

Charleston Gazette Endorsements Need a Little Perspective

Stuart Rothenberg April 25, 2014 · 9:49 AM EDT

Stop the presses!

The Charleston Gazette, West Virginia’s largest newspaper, has endorsed both Democratic Senate hopeful Natalie Tennant and Rep. Nick J. Rahall II, a Democrat in the 3rd District.

Tennant will face Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., in November in an open-seat contest, while Rahall will…

Obama’s Foreign Policy Impacts 2014 Elections — Really

Stuart Rothenberg April 24, 2014 · 9:52 AM EDT

No, I am not going to try to make the case that foreign policy will be at the forefront of this year’s elections, or that international issues are a high priority for most Americans. They aren’t.

But foreign policy could have an indirect yet significant impact on the…

Why TV Airtime Reservations Are More Important Than Ever

Nathan L. Gonzales April 23, 2014 · 11:35 AM EDT

It’s time to pay more attention to television ad reservations; they have become another critical way party strategists communicate without coordinating under campaign finance laws.

Not too many cycles ago, political reporters rightly handled television ad reservations loosely and delicately as strategists from both parties used them to…

Colorado Senate: Mark Udall Still Favored

Stuart Rothenberg April 22, 2014 · 12:34 PM EDT

Rarely has so much been made of so little.

I ought to know, since I am in the middle of the to-do.

During the past weekend’s edition of CNN’s State of the Union, I happened to suggest that Republican Rep. Cory Gardner might upset incumbent Democratic Sen.…

Sebelius to the Senate? Maybe in the Land of Oz, But Not in Kansas

Stuart Rothenberg April 18, 2014 · 11:23 AM EDT

When I read the New York Times piece, “Sebelius Said to Weigh Run for Kansas Senate Seat,” I had two very different reactions.

First, I figured that national Democrats had to be encouraged that former Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, a once-popular two-term governor of…

How to Handicap a Campaign’s Ground Game in 2014

Stuart Rothenberg April 17, 2014 · 9:40 AM EDT

This cycle, Democrats are counting heavily on registering new voters and turning out registered voters who otherwise don’t bother to vote during midterm elections. Republicans are also putting more emphasis on voter contact programs.

In an era of micro-targeting and sophisticated get-out-the-vote operations, how can a handicapper know…

Democratic Senate Prospects and the New Black Voter

Nathan L. Gonzales April 14, 2014 · 12:54 PM EDT

Democrats plan to turn out thousands of African-American voters this fall, in an effort to hold the Senate majority. The challenge is that some of them aren’t yet registered to vote.

Which begs the question, after opportunities to elect and re-elect the first black president, why would an…

Mississippi Senator Thad Cochran, Underdog?

Stuart Rothenberg April 4, 2014 · 9:00 AM EDT

Forget about Matt Bevin’s challenge to Sen. Mitch McConnell in the Kentucky Republican primary or Milton Wolf’s bid to knock off Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts in that state’s GOP contest. The Senate primary to watch is Mississippi’s.

State Sen. Chris McDaniel has the best chance of any anti-establishment…

Nebraska Senate: Peak Timing

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Nathan L. Gonzales March 28, 2014 · 3:00 PM EDT

The first freshman senator for the 114th Congress will be chosen in less than two months.

In Nebraska, GOP Sen. Mike Johanns is retiring after just one term, leaving behind the fourth open Senate seat in the last 14 years. Because Nebraska is such a Republican state, the…