House News & Analysis

Oregon 5: The Toss-Up District Without a Competitive Race

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Nathan L. Gonzales April 19, 2013 · 2:28 PM EDT

It’s not often that someone in Washington, D.C. knows the difference between Dallas and The Dalles -- two small towns in Oregon over 2,800 miles away. But the Republican in charge of keeping his party in the majority in the House of Representatives is well aware of the difference.

South Carolina 1: Sanford Downgraded

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Nathan L. Gonzales April 19, 2013 · 2:27 PM EDT

Since the vast majority of House districts are drawn to elect one party or the other, most of the time, candidates just need to stay out of trouble in order to win. But apparently former Gov. Mark Sanford (R) didn’t get the memo.

He survived the Republican primary…

How Will Divided Attention Affect Obama, Congress?

Stuart Rothenberg April 19, 2013 · 10:09 AM EDT

Not much going on these days, huh? There are only a few things on the president’s — and Congress’ — plate, including:

  • Guns
  • A big budget compromise
  • Immigration overhaul
  • North Korea
  • Bombs at the Boston Marathon
  • Iran’s nuclear program
  • And oh…

South Carolina 1: Special Situation Requires Two Ratings

Nathan L. Gonzales April 17, 2013 · 4:22 PM EDT

We’ve said it many times before, special elections are just that, special, but former Gov. Mark Sanford (R) is apparently working overtime to ensure the race in South Carolina’s 1st District is one for the ages.

In spite of his past failings, Sanford successfully navigated the Republican primary.…

The Most Vulnerable House Incumbent(s) of 2014

Stuart Rothenberg April 17, 2013 · 9:13 AM EDT

Last week, I discussed the most vulnerable senator seeking re-election. It was a tough call, but clearly came down to two Southern Democrats. This week, the question is who is the House’s most vulnerable incumbent, and the answer is much, much easier.

It’s California Republican Gary G. Miller.

Cook’s Partisan Voting Index and the Decline of the Swing District

Stuart Rothenberg April 15, 2013 · 9:30 AM EDT

Every political reporter, campaign professional and political junkie should read Charlie Cook’s most recent National Journal column on the decline of swing congressional districts and the rise of partisanship. (I am certain some credit for the analysis also goes to David Wasserman over at the Cook Political Report.)

New Jobs Numbers Raise Economic — and Political — Questions

Stuart Rothenberg April 6, 2013 · 10:00 AM EDT

The jobs numbers just reported for March — an increase of only 88,000 jobs — are horrendous, especially coming after February’s strong job surge (236,000 new jobs revised up to 268,000).

Forget the unemployment rate sliding from 7.7 percent to 7.6 percent. As The Associated Press noted,…

Utah 4: Matheson v. Love, Round Two

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Nathan L. Gonzales April 5, 2013 · 2:30 PM EDT

Rarely does one House race have a national impact, but that is the case in Utah’s 4th District.

In 2012, Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love came within 768 votes of knocking off Rep. Jim Matheson (D) and becoming the first black Republican woman to serve in Congress.

Arizona 2: The One That Keeps Getting Away

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Jessica Taylor April 5, 2013 · 2:29 PM EDT

Tucson has been the site of hard-fought congressional contests for the past four cycles. But it was an off-year incident that may have cast the largest pall on politics in southern Arizona -- and ultimately had the biggest effect on the 2012 race.

On January 8, 2011, Rep.…

South Carolina 1 Special: The Punchline’s Over

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Jessica Taylor April 5, 2013 · 2:28 PM EDT

National Republicans accepted the political reality a long time ago that disgraced former Gov. Mark Sanford could well be their nominee in South Carolina’s 1st District special election. With the May 7 election against Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch now set, they’re going to have to do something about it…