House News & Analysis

You Can’t Make This Stuff Up — and It’s Only January

Stuart Rothenberg January 29, 2014 · 10:13 AM EST

Sometimes, it’s difficult to tell the difference between a real news story and something from The Onion.

Earlier reports that entertainer Clay Aiken was considering a run for the Democratic nomination in North Carolina’s 2nd District have been overtaken by new stories about the singer “putting together a…

The Real Reasons Recruits Don’t Run

Nathan L. Gonzales January 23, 2014 · 9:52 AM EST

I hate candidate recruitment stories.

More specifically, I hate stories that seem to blame the party campaign committees for their inability to coerce candidates to run.

In reality, there are so many factors that the committees cannot control that it’s simply unfair to hold them responsible for…

Garcia is GOP Rising Star, But is She Going Too High Too Soon?

Nathan L. Gonzales January 21, 2014 · 9:00 AM EST

Last summer, the Republican National Committee promoted Marilinda Garcia as one of the party’s Rising Stars. But her next challenge looks like winning a Republican primary for a seat in Congress.

Garcia was first elected to the New Hampshire state House in 2006, when she was 23 years…

To Special-Election Victors, a Short Stay in Congress

Nathan L. Gonzales January 19, 2014 · 10:00 AM EST

Rep. Bill Owens’ retirement announcement brought back a flood of special-election memories. But one thing in particular stood out to me. For all the national attention that competitive special elections receive, winning candidates’ time in Washington is often relatively short.

Owens’ tenure, when he completes his term, is…

Minimal Change in the House

Stuart Rothenberg January 17, 2014 · 3:00 PM EST

While a flurry of recent Republican retirements in competitive districts have created new Democratic prospects, the overall decline in President Barack Obama’s standing – and the improvement of Republican numbers in the “generic ballot” – suggests increased problems for Democrats in November.

Democrats need a renewed focus on…

2014 House Overview (January 17, 2014) Alabama - Indiana

January 17, 2014 · 2:59 PM EST

Alabama (6 Republicans, 1 Democrat). April 4 filing deadline, June 3 primary, July 15 runoff.
Nothing of interest for the fall.

Alaska (1R). June 2 filing deadline, August 26 primary.
Unless Republican Rep. Don Young, 80, decides to end his run, there is no reason to…

2014 House Overview (January 17, 2014) Iowa - Oklahoma

January 17, 2014 · 2:58 PM EST

Iowa (2R, 2D). March 14 filing deadline, June 3 primary.
IA 1 (Open; Braley, D). Bruce Braley looks to have the cleared the Democratic field in the Senate race, but his congressional seat is much more crowded. The Democratic field includes former state House Speaker Pat Murphy, Cedar…

2014 House Overview (January 17, 2014) Oregon - Wyoming

January 17, 2014 · 2:57 PM EST

Oregon (1R, 4D). March 17 filing deadline, May 20 primary.
OR 5 (Schrader, D). Republicans haven’t been able to crack the code in this competitive district for over a decade. Republicans are looking to Clackamas County Commission Tootie Smith to unseat incumbent Kurt Schrader. The Democrat received just…

California 25: Open Seat Gets More Competitive

Nathan L. Gonzales January 16, 2014 · 12:02 PM EST

After a flurry of surprise retirements, GOP Rep. Buck McKeon’s announcement was one of the worst kept secrets of the last year. So even though the district is competitive, Republicans weren’t caught off-guard and have two credible candidates already in the race.

The California congressman’s exit has been…

Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats

Stuart Rothenberg January 16, 2014 · 10:05 AM EST

I wrote my first Dangerous Dozen open House seats column in this space 14 years ago, so I figured I might as well keep the streak going, though it isn’t nearly as impressive as Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak.

As in my Jan. 17, 2000, column, the districts…