Archive

One Way to Look at the Presidential Polls

by Stuart Rothenberg April 25, 2012 · 8:30 AM EDT

It’s really amazing how some people with years of political experience change their opinions about the political landscape to match the latest poll.

It’s not that poll results shouldn’t affect our understanding of politics or inform us about what people are thinking. It’s that too often people…

Oklahoma 2: Living in the Past?

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 20, 2012 · 11:59 AM EDT

A Democratic incumbent is retiring in a district where President Obama will likely receive one-third of the vote in November, but Democratic strategists nonetheless believe they can hold the seat.

Rep. Dan Boren (D) is arguably the most conservative Democrat in Congress and has had no trouble…

Florida Senate: Looking Tougher and Tougher for the GOP

by Jessica Taylor April 20, 2012 · 11:58 AM EDT

 A chance to take out a Democratic incumbent in arguably the most critical swing state in the country just two years after the Republican tidal wave swept through the state seems like the GOP’s dream scenario. But in Florida, that chance increasingly looks like a slim possibility thanks to weak…

Kentucky House: Republicans Battle to Replace Davis

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 20, 2012 · 11:57 AM EDT

Rep. Geoff Davis caught many of his fellow Republicans off-guard when he decided not to seek reelection to a fifth term, but Davis leaves behind one of the most Republican seats in Kentucky. Since his 4th District seat isn’t vulnerable to a Democratic takeover, the May 22 winner-take-all primary…

New Mexico 1: Democratic (Not-So) Civil War

by Jessica Taylor April 20, 2012 · 11:56 AM EDT

Once upon a time, the Albuquerque desert was home to one of the nation’s top political fights. This year, the heat’s being turned up in the 1st District Democratic primary, but it will likely fade after the June 5 primary as this once-battleground seat drops off the list of top GOP targets.

As…

Arkansas House: Razorback Red

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 20, 2012 · 11:55 AM EDT

With control of the governorship and the Legislature, Democrats were in prime position to take back at least a couple of seats they lost in 2010 in Arkansas.

But local Democratic cartographers didn’t see eye to eye with Democratic strategists in D.C. and drew a map that could allow Republicans…

2012 House Ratings (April 20, 2012)

April 20, 2012 · 11:54 AM EDT

Don’t Believe the Anti-Incumbent Narrative

by Stuart Rothenberg April 20, 2012 · 9:54 AM EDT

Though it probably won’t start for a few more days, the “anti-incumbent election” narrative will grow loud during the next few weeks, as a handful of Members of Congress find themselves in tough races. It won’t matter whether they are defeated in primaries or just squeeze through in tight, nasty…

Arizona 8 Special: Table Set for Giffords’ Seat

by Jessica Taylor April 18, 2012 · 11:59 AM EDT

The nominees are in place for the highly competitive Arizona special election to replace former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), as 2010 GOP nominee Jesse Kelly cruised to an expected primary win on Tuesday. 

Kelly took 36 percent of the vote. His next closest competitor was retired Air Force…