New Normal Isn’t Friendly to Trump

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Nathan L. Gonzales August 19, 2016 · 3:00 PM EDT

The dust is starting to settle after the conventions, and it looks more like quicksand for Donald J. Trump.

The GOP presidential nominee was in a precarious electoral position before the conventions because of his high unfavorable ratings and penchant for saying controversial things. Four days in Cleveland was supposed to unite the GOP but appears to have done the opposite, as Trump has lost ground to Hillary Clinton in national and swing-state polls.

Clinton held a narrow 47-43 percent advantage over Trump in the July 11-14 ABC News/Washington Post poll taken before the conventions and 50-42 percent in an August 1-4 survey after the conventions. According to the RealClearPolitics average, Clinton widened her national lead from 3 points before the conventions to 7 points in the middle of August. For some context, Barack Obama won the 2008 election by 7 points and was re-elected by 4 points in the popular vote in 2012.

Of course, we don’t have a national election, but the news in individual states isn’t any better for Trump.

Based on the most recent presidential elections and demographic trends, any GOP nominee faced an uphill battle in the electoral college by needing to win Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. With less than three months before Election Day, Trump’s path…

Trump’s Troubles Loosen GOP Grip on Senate Majority

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Nathan L. Gonzales August 19, 2016 · 2:59 PM EDT

Donald Trump is slipping further behind Hillary Clinton in the presidential race and is now in danger of taking the Republican Senate majority down with him. 

Up until the conventions, most of the vulnerable Republican senators looked poised to withstand Trump losing the presidential election. But…

New Hampshire 1: Guinta Struggles to Reach Rematch

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Simone Pathé August 19, 2016 · 2:58 PM EDT

It’s deja vu again in New Hampshire’s 1st District, where GOP Rep. Frank Guinta is up for re-election and former Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is once again hoping to reclaim her old seat. But this year, there’s a twist.

Guinta first has to survive a competitive primary. Trouble with the…

House Democrats Wait for Weight of Trump

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Nathan L. Gonzales August 19, 2016 · 2:57 PM EDT

You won’t hear Democratic strategists utter the “m” word but, deep-down inside, some of them believe the House majority is still within reach.

Right now, there aren’t enough districts in play for Democrats to win the majority and the polling in many of the competitive districts isn’t great for…