October 21, 2016 · 3:00 PM EDT
As the presidential race looks increasingly over, the fight for the Senate rages on. GOP candidates continue to weather the Donald Trump storm but there is only so much they can withstand.
Hillary Clinton’s significant advantage over Trump is impacting Senate races in at least a couple of ways. The larger her margin of victory in key states, the more ticket-splitters will be required for Republican senators to survive. And Clinton’s confident position is allowing her and her friendly super PAC to shift money and resources to Senate races.
Democrats need to gain 4 seats to control the Senate next year with a White House victory and are still poised to gain 3-6 seats. The upper-end of that range looks most likely as Trump implodes, but many of the GOP incumbents have been resilient.
Democrats still look likely to take over Illinois and Wisconsin, bringing the fight for control of the Senate down to six states: Indiana, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, and Missouri. Democrats need to win three of those six states for control because winning Nevada would just be holding a seat they already control.
Even with a Trump collapse, the Senate playing field isn’t likely to expand dramatically. Ohio appears to be off the table for good, and it doesn’t look like…
October 21, 2016 · 2:59 PM EDT
Three presidential debates are in the books, and the biggest surprise might be that Donald Trump participated in all of them. In spite of all the media attention, Wednesday’s debate probably didn’t change the fundamental dynamics of the race, and Hillary Clinton will likely maintain her solid…
October 21, 2016 · 2:58 PM EDT
With a little more than two weeks before Election Day, Democrats are still waiting for the wave to develop that is probably required to retake the House majority.
Donald Trump consistently gives Democrats fresh fodder for press releases and campaign ads, but the party has struggled to convince…